Des Moines, I Dream of You Tonight
I totally know what’s gonna happen tonight:
it’s gonna be both the closest Iowa caucus in history, and the highest number of voters ever.
Course, no one knows how they'll shake out, least of all me, but it’s fun to make a prediction . . .
1st Dean, then Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards
Dean and Gephardt’s superior existing ground-force infrastructure (often referred to as ”organization”) will trump these recent polls I’m suspicious of anyway and think the commitment is soft and ephemeral.
Kerry and Edwards have already ‘won’ by what’s happened to their campaigns the last two weeks.
Sickly like Survivor, Edwards & Kucinich have made an alliance and will ask their people to join the other if the first one doesn’t get 15%. (which basically means Edwards gets every Kucinich vote, cuz Dennis will be over the 15% viability threshold in maybe one precinct)
If either edwards or kerry miraculously manifests votes on the ground and actually beats gephardt, for sure he won’t be chowin on any frozen New Ham.
Applying the Law of 3 Tickets Out of Iowa, unless he finishes first (and he's more likely to get 4th than 1st) it’s basically Gephardt who’s gonna be left on the Midwest platform. He’s cooked, unless there’s some . . . nah, he’s done.
And suddenly V.P. Edwards is looking real plausible.
how does: Kerry / Edwards vs. Bush / Cheney look to you?
Apparently results will come in real time to caucus2004.org